Mareike Fischer and Mike Steel

Allan Wilson Centre for Molecular Ecology and Evolution, Biomathematics Research Centre, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand.

Abstract

The problem of intermediates in the fossil record has been frequently discussed ever since Darwin. The extent of ‘gaps’ (missing transitional stages) has been used to argue against gradual evolution from a common ancestor. Traditionally, gaps have often been explained by the improbability of fossilization and the discontinuous selection of found fossils. Here we take an analytical approach and demonstrate why, under certain sampling conditions, we may not expect intermediates to be found. Using a simple null model, we show mathematically that the question of whether a taxon sampled from some time in the past is likely to be morphologically intermediate to other samples (dated earlier and later) depends on the shape and dimensions of the underlying phylogenetic tree that connects the taxa, and the times from which the fossils are sampled.