Palliative Care: Research and Treatment

Introduction: The ability to estimate prognosis using administrative data has already been established. Research indicates that residents newly admitted to long-term care are at a higher risk of mortality. Studies have also examined mortality within 90 days or a year. Focusing on 31 days from assessment was important because it appears to be clinically useful for care planning in end-of-life; whereby, greater utility may come from identifying residents who are at risk of death within a shorter time frame so that advance care planning can occur.

Purpose: To examine risk of mortality within 31 days of assessment among long-term care residents using administrative health data.

Methods: Administrative data were used to examine risk of mortality within 31 days of assessment among all long-term care residents in Ontario over a 12-month period. Data were provided by the Canadian Institute for Health Information using the Continuing Care Reporting System (CCRS), Discharge Abstract Database (DAD), and the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS).

Results: A number of diagnoses and health conditions predict death within 31 days. Diagnoses that hold an increased risk of mortality include pulmonary disease, diagnosis of cancer, and heart disease. Health conditions that lead to an increased likelihood of death include weight loss, dehydration, and shortness of breath. The presence of a fall within the last 30 days was also related to a higher risk of mortality.

Discussion: Long-term care residents who lose weight, have persistent problems with hydration, and suffer from shortness of breath are at particular risk of death. The presence of advanced directives also predicts death within 31 days of assessment.